Thursday, January 31, 2008

MANY Reasons to be Optimistic

Well... here are my thoughts on the Republican Primary.
Mitt Romney has never acquiesced to apparent defeat—and he shows no signs of quitting in this election.  The media already wrote an obituary, but Mitt's supporters have many reasons to be optimistic.
The campaign released a strategy memo today by Alex Gage.  He outlines a very important weakness in McCain's situation: he still does not appeal to conservatives.  If you listen to Sean Hannity, Laura Ingram, or Rush Limbaugh, you will hear how much they dislike McCain's liberal policies and rhetoric.  From the exit poll data in early states, there are many conservatives who agree.
McCain's "coalition" of independent, moderate and liberal Republicans is rather weak.  Upcoming primaries will give Mitt Romney a chance to bring conservatives together and still win the Republican nomination.
Super (Duper) Tuesday – February 5
Next Tuesday, February 5 is the so-called "Super Tuesday."  More than 20 states will hold their primary or caucus that day.  And, Mitt Romney has a strong foothold in many of those states.
I spent today analyzing poll numbers in each of those states.  And, I found that the National Review Online agreed:  McCain is very strong in states like New York, New Jersey and Arizona (200 delegates between them, winner take all).  But, Mitt Romney has comparable strongholds in Massachusetts, Utah, California, Montana (with the potential for 200 delegates between them for Mitt).  He is also within reach of states like Georgia, Delaware, Alaska and Missouri (with the endorsement of MO Gov. Matt Blount).
A candidate needs 1,191 delegates to secure the Republican nomination at the convention in September.  After "Super Tuesday," I estimate the following totals in pledged delegates (including all contests to date):
John McCain:  570
Mitt Romney: 386
Mike Huckabee: 226
Mitt Romney will still be in second place, but not out of the race. McCain is still far from securing the Republican nomination.  And Huckabee, while he seems to siphon conservative votes from Mitt Romney, is also keeping votes from John McCain.  He may be the one who forces a convention contest.
Clearly there is still a path to victory.  It does not look like a smooth ride, but Mitt Romney is moving forward with his characteristic energy.  With our fundraising support and his own contributions, Mitt Romney has purchased significant ad time in California and 20 other February 5th states ("Experience Matters" will go on the air in California).

We still have the most qualified candidate and the right message: bringing change to Washington and strength to America.  Please reach out to friends in each of other states (especially those listed below), and invite them to support Mitt Romney for President.  Please remember to vote (early, if necessary) and support Mitt Romney.  And, if you have not already, please make a contribution to Mitt Romney's Victory Fund!!  (click on link to contribute)
This election is far from over.  And, we still have a chance to put Mitt Romney in the White House.  So, enjoy your Super Tuesday poll watching!!
That is all.
A few interesting articles:
"John McCain Hates Me" by Michael Reagan (son of the late Ronald Reagan)
"Rally for Romney" by Mark Levin (former official in the Department of Justice under Reagan)
"The Core Difference between McCain and Romney" by Paul Mirengoff (Powerline Blog)
"GOP Debate: Rudy Endorsed the Wrong Man" by Ross Kaminsky (Columnist, Former Rudy Giuliani supporter)
States voting on February 5th:
New Jersey
New York
North Dakota
West Virginia

No comments: