Thursday, January 31, 2008

Low... but True.

MANY Reasons to be Optimistic

Well... here are my thoughts on the Republican Primary.
Mitt Romney has never acquiesced to apparent defeat—and he shows no signs of quitting in this election.  The media already wrote an obituary, but Mitt's supporters have many reasons to be optimistic.
The campaign released a strategy memo today by Alex Gage.  He outlines a very important weakness in McCain's situation: he still does not appeal to conservatives.  If you listen to Sean Hannity, Laura Ingram, or Rush Limbaugh, you will hear how much they dislike McCain's liberal policies and rhetoric.  From the exit poll data in early states, there are many conservatives who agree.
McCain's "coalition" of independent, moderate and liberal Republicans is rather weak.  Upcoming primaries will give Mitt Romney a chance to bring conservatives together and still win the Republican nomination.
Super (Duper) Tuesday – February 5
Next Tuesday, February 5 is the so-called "Super Tuesday."  More than 20 states will hold their primary or caucus that day.  And, Mitt Romney has a strong foothold in many of those states.
I spent today analyzing poll numbers in each of those states.  And, I found that the National Review Online agreed:  McCain is very strong in states like New York, New Jersey and Arizona (200 delegates between them, winner take all).  But, Mitt Romney has comparable strongholds in Massachusetts, Utah, California, Montana (with the potential for 200 delegates between them for Mitt).  He is also within reach of states like Georgia, Delaware, Alaska and Missouri (with the endorsement of MO Gov. Matt Blount).
A candidate needs 1,191 delegates to secure the Republican nomination at the convention in September.  After "Super Tuesday," I estimate the following totals in pledged delegates (including all contests to date):
John McCain:  570
Mitt Romney: 386
Mike Huckabee: 226
Mitt Romney will still be in second place, but not out of the race. McCain is still far from securing the Republican nomination.  And Huckabee, while he seems to siphon conservative votes from Mitt Romney, is also keeping votes from John McCain.  He may be the one who forces a convention contest.
Clearly there is still a path to victory.  It does not look like a smooth ride, but Mitt Romney is moving forward with his characteristic energy.  With our fundraising support and his own contributions, Mitt Romney has purchased significant ad time in California and 20 other February 5th states ("Experience Matters" will go on the air in California).

We still have the most qualified candidate and the right message: bringing change to Washington and strength to America.  Please reach out to friends in each of other states (especially those listed below), and invite them to support Mitt Romney for President.  Please remember to vote (early, if necessary) and support Mitt Romney.  And, if you have not already, please make a contribution to Mitt Romney's Victory Fund!!  (click on link to contribute)
This election is far from over.  And, we still have a chance to put Mitt Romney in the White House.  So, enjoy your Super Tuesday poll watching!!
That is all.
A few interesting articles:
"John McCain Hates Me" by Michael Reagan (son of the late Ronald Reagan)
"Rally for Romney" by Mark Levin (former official in the Department of Justice under Reagan)
"The Core Difference between McCain and Romney" by Paul Mirengoff (Powerline Blog)
"GOP Debate: Rudy Endorsed the Wrong Man" by Ross Kaminsky (Columnist, Former Rudy Giuliani supporter)
States voting on February 5th:
New Jersey
New York
North Dakota
West Virginia

Saturday, January 19, 2008

McCain lost BIG today...

Did anyone else notice that John McCain came in 3rd place in Nevada... BEHIND RON PAUL...

NV Caucus Results - 98% Reporting
Romney            51
Paul                  13
McCain             13
Huckabee          8
Thompson         8
Rudy                 4
Hunter               2

That is all.


State o' the Race (in stream of consciousness style)

Wow... isn't this FUN??? Actually, this primary has been just super interesting! And, it has had the other effect of entirely turning me off of political ambitions. But, more on that later.

I dedicated 3 weeks straight to supporting Mitt Romney in Iowa and New Hampshire. And, I decided that I must be the bad egg, so I stayed home for Michigan. Turns out, I might have been right. In the meantime, sometime I'll write about how inane the Iowa caucus system happens to be...

Boy, do I have a LOT to write about. I think I'm going to set this up to take posts from my new iPhone, just so I can send thoughts when they come to me in the future. So, look for random thoughts from Horatio's iPhone.

But, for now, I strongly recommend: Ann Coulter's amazingly insightful comment called The Elephant in the Room. She does a pretty good, insightful job outlining the GOP Primary.

As of today, I need to remind you that Mitt Romney is the leader in the GOP race. Of course, you will not hear that on most news channels. But, he has won THREE states (WY, MI, NV) and has the most delegates of any candidate.

This race is far from over, and it's going to get very interesting from here on out.

Florida is January 29th, and it is the one chance Rudy Giuliani has to restore his front-runner status.

Basically, unlike previous elections where Iowa, New Hampshire or South Carolina decided the nominee: Florida is the key race in the Republican Primary.

A few random thoughts...

Huckabee is Dead: The man cannot appeal to any group outside of Evangelical Christians. Why? Because his only qualification to be POTUS is the fact that he's a Baptist preacher. He cannot do anything but be the ant-Mormon candidate. After all, his only real accomplishment as Governor of Arkansas was losing 150 pounds.

McCain LOOKs Dead, but could drag the Grand Olde Party down with him: I'm sorry, but I really think John McCain is NUTS. And, he's on the wrong side of EVERY issue. Yes, he is a great American hero... and we honor him for that. But, I don't think I want a President who spent that much time being tortured in a cement box, no matter how grateful I am for what he sacrificed. I want competance in the Oval Office. But, mark my words, if John McCain is the nominee, a Democrat will win the White House... and we can just stop invoking Ronald Reagan at that point... because John McCain does not represent what I believe.

Romney is still in the Game: Yep, I think my guy can still win this. If he wins Florida, going head-to-pockmarked-head with John McCain, I think Romney becomes the GOP nominee. And, we're all in this through November.

Of course, if Romney is not the nominee... I may find myself voting for Obama. I mean, at least Barak is talking about the greatness of America. He's a socialist, but at least he's a socialist who inspires people (hmm... did they say that about Lenin or Hitler?)

In the end, here is the order of people I think I would vote for to be the next President of the United States (out of the viable candidates from both parties):

Mitt Romney
(insert huge space here, because really nobody in this race even compares... not even the infamous Ron Paul)
Rudy Giuliani
Barak Obama
John McCain
(insert huge space here)
- Hillary Clinton (evil incarnate)
- Mike Huckabee (wolf in sheep's clothing--I don't think I've seen a more incompetent, dishonest, fake man in my political life)
Ron Paul (the man who turned "constitution" into a swear word)

So, there you have it.

That is all.