Well, everybody does seem to love Huckabee these days. After watching tonight's Republican debate on CNN, I can certainly see why. I'll admit, he's articulate and funny. And, according to recent polling, he actually threats Romney's dominance in Iowa.
But, to all zero Iowa voters that I expect to read this blog post, I want to say something:
A Vote for Huckabee on January 3rd is actually a vote for Giuliani
Now, if that is what you are going for, that is fine by me. I just want to make sure you KNOW what you are voting for. Here is my rationale:
1) Despite Huckabee's amazing rise in Iowa, he remains stagnant in New Hampshire, Nevada, South Carolina, Michigan and Florida. Romney and Giuliani both have impressive organizations in all of those states and have built support the old fashioned way.
So, even if Huckabee does pull off a win in Iowa, he has neither the time nor the money to put together a significant organization to win on February 5th. Granted, he will make a big splash if he does win Iowa, but not a big enough splash to become the Republican Nominee.
Conclusion: Huckabee does not have a chance of becoming the Republican Nominee.
2) A Huckabee win in Iowa benefits only one candidate: Rudolph W. Giuliani. Rudy gave up on Iowa a long time ago, and has not bothered to campaign there at all. In fact, him and McCain both conceded Iowa to Romney a long time ago. The one thing those guys will PRAY for is for Romney to lose to anybody else. It cuts off his momentum right at the start.
If Huckabee wins Iowa, it gives Giuliani the cover he needs to survive the early states and try to make a play on February 5th to secure the nomination.
3) Mitt Romney's strategy is to win early states and establish momentum going into bigger, more contested states. Right now, he is in a good position to win Iowa and New Hampshire. But, the mainstream media has declared him the easy winner of both. Why? Because if he LOSES in those states, it hurts him much more than winning helps him. They are raising expectations and hoping he breaks them.
If Romney can win Iowa and New Hampshire, then use that momentum to take Nevada, South Carolina, Michigan and Florida... he can win the Republican nomination. But, if he trips right out of the gate, the media will instantly declare him the loser. Thus, Giuliani will have an unobstructed path to the Republican nomination.
Conclusion: If Huckabee wins Iowa, Giuliani will be the Republican nominee.
4) Huckabee knows this. He isn't stupid. But, I'm starting to learn that he is not nearly as nice as he seems on TV (what with all the push polling and bigotry coming from his camp). He is looking at the field, and his only chance for power is to kill Romney in Iowa. I repeat: his ONLY chance to one day work in the White House is to beat Gov. Romney.
Huckabee is now waging a dirty campaign in Iowa to unseat Romney. And, it's going to get UGLY.
Conclusion: Mike Huckabee has his eyes firmly set on Vice President under Rudolph Giuliani. Can you imagine trying to get your kids to pronounce Giuliani-Huckabee??
From an entirely strategic perspective (as a pretty strong Romney supporter): Mike Hucakbee scares me.
And, he scares me from a deeper point. If he wins, we will have a social liberal and a fiscal liberal
Wednesday, November 28, 2007
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